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Аннотация
Статья представляет результаты двухэтапного психолингвистического эксперимента, в ходе которого гендерно сбалансированная группа российских респондентов 307, а затем 200 человек разных возрастных когорт оценивали 50 основных и 10 дополнительных высказываний о создании «Министерства счастья». Комбинация описательной статистики, t‑SNE‑проекции, кластеризации k‑means, информационно‑теоретических метрик и семантического кодирования GPT‑4 позволила выявить четыре устойчивых кластера ценностей и показать, что поляризационный импульс формируется молодыми критиками, тогда как старшие когорты выполняют буферную функцию институциональной лояльности. Гендерно‑возрастной анализ дополнительного текста выявил радикально‑критическую позицию мужчин среднего возраста и конформную ориентацию женщин на культурную стабильность. Индекс лояльности у поколения зрелого социализма превышает молодёжный в среднем на 17 баллов, что подтверждает гипотезу о смене коллективистских установок индивидуалистическими. Результаты демонстрируют потенциал интеграции вычислительной социологии и теории групповой динамики для ранней диагностики общественных расколов.
Ключевые слова
Детали статьи
Дмитрий Волченков
хабилитированный доктор наук (Франция, Германия), лауреат премии Гумбольдта (Германия) и Плана 1000 талантов (Китай), профессор Сычуаньского университета науки и технологий (Китай) и Техасского Технологического университета (США)
Литература
- Achiam J., Adler S., Agarwal S., et al. OpenAI. GPT-4 Technical Report. 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774.
- Beck U., Beck‑Gernsheim E. Individualization. SAGE. 2002.
- Billig M. Banal Nationalism. SAGE. 1995.
- Burawoy M., Krotov P. The Soviet Transition from Socialism to Capitalism: Worker Control and Economic Bargaining in the Wood Industry // American Sociological Review. 1992. Vol. 57(1). P. 16-38.
- Cacioppo J.T., Petty R.E. The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion // Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1986. Vol.19(1). P. 124-205.
- Chaiken S., Maheswaran, D. Heuristic processing can bias systematic processing: Effects of source credibility, argument ambiguity, and task importance on attitude judgment // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1994. Vol. 66(3). P. 460–473.
- Cunningham J.P., Ghahramani Z. Linear dimensionality reduction: Survey, insights, and generalizations // Journal of Machine Learning Research. 2015. Vol.16. P. 2859–2900.
- Esteban J.‑M., Ray D. On the measurement of polarization // Econometrica. 1994. Vol. 62(4). P. 819-851.
- Festinger L. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press, 1957.
- Giddens A. Modernity and self‑identity. Polity Press, 1991.
- Gilligan C. In a Different Voice. Harvard University Press, 1982.
- Graham J., Haidt J., Nosek B. Liberals and conservatives rely on different sets of moral foundations // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 2009. Vol. 96(5). P. 1029-1046.
- Haidt J. The Righteous Mind. US.: Pantheon, 2012.
- Inglehart R., Welzel C. Modernization, cultural change and democracy. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
- Kosterman R., Feshbach S. Toward a measure of patriotic and nationalistic attitudes // Political Psychology. 1989. Vol.10(2). P. 257-274.
- Lavine H. The electoral consequences of ambivalence toward presidential candidates // American Journal of Political Science. 2001. Vol. 45(4). P. 915-929.
- Moscovici S. Toward a theory of conversion behavior. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1980. Vol. 13. P. 209–239. Academic Press.
- Mudde C. The Populist Zeitgeist // Government and Opposition. 2004. Vol. 39(4). P. 541-563. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x
- Norris P. Democratic Deficit. Cambridge University Press, 2011.
- Petty R.E., Cacioppo J.T. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion // In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1986. Vol. 19. P. 124–205.
- Parker K., Graf N., Igielnik R. Generation Z Looks a Lot Like Millennials on Key Social and Political Issues // Pew Research Center. 2019. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/
- Rawls J. A Theory of Justice. Harvard University Press, 1971.
- Rose R. Understanding Post‑Communist Transformations. London: Taylor and Francis, 2009.
- Rosenberg M.J. Society and the Adolescent Self‑Image. Princeton University Press, 1965.
- Schwartz S.H. An overview of the Schwartz theory of basic values // Online Readings in Psychology and Culture. 2012. Vol. 2(1). DOI: 10.9707/2307-0919.1116
- Shannon C.E. A Mathematical Theory of Communication // Bell System Technical Journal. 1948. Vol. 27(3). P. 379–423; Vol. 27(4). P. 623–656. DOI: 10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x
- Stroud N.J. Media use and political predispositions: Revisiting the concept of selective exposure // Political Behavior. 2008. Vol. 30(3). P. 341–366.
- Taber C.S., Lodge M. Motivated skepticism in the evaluation of political beliefs // American Journal of Political Science. 2006. Vol. 50(3). P. 755–769.
- Twenge J.M. Generation Me. NY.: Simon and Schuster, 2014.
- Van der Maaten L., Hinton G. Visualizing data using t-SNE // Journal of Machine Learning Research. 2008. Vol. 9. P. 2579–2605.
- Wattenberg M., Viégas F., Johnson I. How to use t-SNE effectively // Distill. 2016. https://distill.pub/2016/misread-tsne/
- Zaller J. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press, 1992.
Литература
Achiam J., Adler S., Agarwal S., et al. OpenAI. GPT-4 Technical Report. 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774.
Beck U., Beck‑Gernsheim E. Individualization. SAGE. 2002.
Billig M. Banal Nationalism. SAGE. 1995.
Burawoy M., Krotov P. The Soviet Transition from Socialism to Capitalism: Worker Control and Economic Bargaining in the Wood Industry // American Sociological Review. 1992. Vol. 57(1). P. 16-38.
Cacioppo J.T., Petty R.E. The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion // Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1986. Vol.19(1). P. 124-205.
Chaiken S., Maheswaran, D. Heuristic processing can bias systematic processing: Effects of source credibility, argument ambiguity, and task importance on attitude judgment // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1994. Vol. 66(3). P. 460–473.
Cunningham J.P., Ghahramani Z. Linear dimensionality reduction: Survey, insights, and generalizations // Journal of Machine Learning Research. 2015. Vol.16. P. 2859–2900.
Esteban J.‑M., Ray D. On the measurement of polarization // Econometrica. 1994. Vol. 62(4). P. 819-851.
Festinger L. A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance. Stanford University Press, 1957.
Giddens A. Modernity and self‑identity. Polity Press, 1991.
Gilligan C. In a Different Voice. Harvard University Press, 1982.
Graham J., Haidt J., Nosek B. Liberals and conservatives rely on different sets of moral foundations // Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 2009. Vol. 96(5). P. 1029-1046.
Haidt J. The Righteous Mind. US.: Pantheon, 2012.
Inglehart R., Welzel C. Modernization, cultural change and democracy. Cambridge University Press, 2005.
Kosterman R., Feshbach S. Toward a measure of patriotic and nationalistic attitudes // Political Psychology. 1989. Vol.10(2). P. 257-274.
Lavine H. The electoral consequences of ambivalence toward presidential candidates // American Journal of Political Science. 2001. Vol. 45(4). P. 915-929.
Moscovici S. Toward a theory of conversion behavior. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1980. Vol. 13. P. 209–239. Academic Press.
Mudde C. The Populist Zeitgeist // Government and Opposition. 2004. Vol. 39(4). P. 541-563. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x
Norris P. Democratic Deficit. Cambridge University Press, 2011.
Petty R.E., Cacioppo J.T. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion // In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. 1986. Vol. 19. P. 124–205.
Parker K., Graf N., Igielnik R. Generation Z Looks a Lot Like Millennials on Key Social and Political Issues // Pew Research Center. 2019. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/
Rawls J. A Theory of Justice. Harvard University Press, 1971.
Rose R. Understanding Post‑Communist Transformations. London: Taylor and Francis, 2009.
Rosenberg M.J. Society and the Adolescent Self‑Image. Princeton University Press, 1965.
Schwartz S.H. An overview of the Schwartz theory of basic values // Online Readings in Psychology and Culture. 2012. Vol. 2(1). DOI: 10.9707/2307-0919.1116
Shannon C.E. A Mathematical Theory of Communication // Bell System Technical Journal. 1948. Vol. 27(3). P. 379–423; Vol. 27(4). P. 623–656. DOI: 10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x
Stroud N.J. Media use and political predispositions: Revisiting the concept of selective exposure // Political Behavior. 2008. Vol. 30(3). P. 341–366.
Taber C.S., Lodge M. Motivated skepticism in the evaluation of political beliefs // American Journal of Political Science. 2006. Vol. 50(3). P. 755–769.
Twenge J.M. Generation Me. NY.: Simon and Schuster, 2014.
Van der Maaten L., Hinton G. Visualizing data using t-SNE // Journal of Machine Learning Research. 2008. Vol. 9. P. 2579–2605.
Wattenberg M., Viégas F., Johnson I. How to use t-SNE effectively // Distill. 2016. https://distill.pub/2016/misread-tsne/
Zaller J. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press, 1992.